Macau’s gaming sector EBITDA growth is likely to see a slowdown in June and July due to mainland China’s money exchange crackdown, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said.
In a recent update, analysts Praveen K. Choudhary, Gareth Leung, and Stephen W. Grambling highlighted that the second quarter is projected to report the first negative quarter-on-quarter growth in both industry mass gross gaming revenue(GGR) and corporate EBITDA since the post-COVID-19 reopening.
The forecast suggests a 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in mass GGR, reaching 113 per cent of the 2019 level, while corporate EBITDA is expected to decrease by 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter, reaching 80 per cent of the pre-pandemic level.
Comparing the full-year 2024 EBITDA consensus with the run rate of the first half of this year, the analysts pointed out that a 5 per cent half-year over half-year growth is necessary in the second half of this year to achieve the full-year 2024 consensus.
However, the brokerage firm predicts that June and July will see a slowdown due to the money exchange crackdown, while weaker macroeconomic conditions, consumption, and retail sales in China could persist in the third quarter and impact the Macau market.
Earlier in June, China’s Ministry of Public Security urged security forces in Macau and the mainland to strengthen cooperation in cracking down on illegal money exchange businesses in the Macau SAR.
The so-called ‘money changers’, present around the city’s casinos, have been identified as a key method for moving funds across different jurisdictions, particularly between the mainland and Macau.
In the report, the analysts also anticipate that the fourth-quarter results will be negatively impacted by the visit of China’s President Xi Jinping.
President Xi is expected to visit Macau to mark the 25th anniversary of its handover to China by the end of this year.
