Special Report – Demography – Will the Year of the Dragon come to the rescue?

By
João Paulo Meneses

Macau Business | February 2024 | Special Report | Demography – Will the Year of the Dragon come to the rescue?

A glimmer in the demographic winter

The year 1988, marked as the Year of the Dragon, saw the highest number of births in Macau. Twenty-four years later, in 2012, more records were established. While there was no noticeable increase in birth rates in 2000, it is indisputable that the Chinese zodiac influences the demography of East Asia.

Currently grappling with a demographic winter (this year, for the first time, the young population will be smaller than the elderly), Macau might observe a new peak of births towards the end of the year. However, irrespective of the number of births, problems will persist: in 2025, fewer babies are expected to be born, all while witnessing greater longevity.

Demographic challenges have multifaceted implications, extending beyond the social and economic realms. The primary issues are addressed in this dedicated report, providing insights into whether it is possible to counter the trend and outlining potential government interventions: more financial investments (as seen in Hong Kong)? increased immigration? additional working hours to subsidise reform?

The reader will discover answers to these questions in the subsequent pages of a special report that had the privilege of featuring a panel of Macau’s leading academic scholars with an interest in demographic implications.

Co-ordinated by João Paulo Meneses [email protected]

Do ‘Dragons’ have a better fate?

Parents believe so, but scientific studies say it’s nothing more than superstition

Special Report – Dragon baby boom: 1988 and 2012 (but not 2000)

In 2000, the auspicious belief surrounding dragon babies did not succeed in easing parents’ worries about childbirth during an economic recession

Macau’s demographic profile

The figures speak volumes, and they indicate that, since 2021, the issue has become more severe than ever before.

Pensions: Awaiting 2026 (or 2028)

Macau had been slow in implementing a mandatory pension system, delaying what seems inevitable

Reemploying senior citizens

Something has to be done in the medium term: raising the retirement age is one option, another is to focus on senior citizens returning to work

What can the Government do (more)?

There are many measures that can still be taken; it remains to be seen whether they will yield results. Opinions are divided

HKD20,000?

The Hong Kong Government is offering HKD20,000 for every child born since October. Wasted money, say experts interviewed by Macau Business

Bad news…

China entered an era of negative population growth. Will China get old before it gets rich?

Japanification”

Macau is far from being an isolated case. In fact, East Asia is the place in the world with the most pronounced ageing, and where there is the only country qualified as a “super-aged society,” Japan. In 2050, there will be 11 with these characteristics in the region (including Macau).

Is immigration the solution for low birth rate?

It is known that many countries, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, rely on immigration to solve demographic problems, whether related to the ageing of the population or, above all, to the low birth rate. Since Macau is experiencing similar problems, is immigration the solution?