Macau’s GGR run-rate expected to hit a floor this month: Citigroup

Macau has experienced a seasonal slowdown in June when it comes to gross gaming revenue, partly dampened by heavy rainfall and the nationwide university admission exams, according to Citigroup (Citi).

A recent survey carried out by analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung pointed to the month slowing down, with pair recommending “investors treat this month’s data point as the floor for Macau’s GGR run-rate this year”.

In the premium mass segment, the findings indicated a 10 per cent year-on-year rise in total wagers, amounting to HKD10 million (US$1.28 million/ MOP10.28 million) in June 2024 compared to HK$9.1 million in June last year.

This growth was primarily driven by a 31 per cent rise in the number of players, reaching 543 in total.

However, the wager per player witnessed a 16 per cent year-on-year fall to HKD18,478. This decline was attributed to the high base set in June 2023 when Sands China played host to Cantopop singer Jacky Cheung for a series of shows that attracted high spenders.

The Citi survey also showed encouraging signs, considering the first day of China’s nationwide university admission exams, which typically results in reduced travel by parents.

The analysts found the 31 per cent year-on-year increase in player count and the 10 per cent higher wager to be positive indicators for the industry.

High-stake players, usually referred to as whales, remained flat year-on-year at 16, with the standout player betting HKD10 million at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon room.

The last instance of a seven-figure bet was recorded in November 2019 when a player wagered HKD1.7 million.

Among the 16 whales, 11 were spotted at Galaxy and Wynn Macau, further solidifying their position as the top casinos for premium mass gaming.

Citi also made other notable observations. Sands China, which recently closed the Pacifica casino, managed to mitigate the impact on EBITDA through strategic measures.

These measures included converting a former junket room into a new grind mass area with 22 tables and attracting customers to their Parisian property.

Additionally, renovation activities were observed in Studio City’s grind mass area and the 2nd floor of StarWorld.

Furthermore, Citi highlighted the introduction of a new side bet called Small 6/Big 6 by Sands China and Galaxy in their May survey.

Based on current observations, these two casino operators now offer the side bet at all baccarat tables.

The remaining four operators are gradually rolling out this popular side bet, which is available in both premium mass and grind mass areas.