Macau’s gaming industry property EBITDA for the second quarter of 2024 is expected to decline by 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$1.97 billion (MOP15.85 billion), brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said.
In a recent report published following the release of June’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) results, analysts Praveen K Choudhary and Gareth Leung drew this estimate as they anticipated a 3-4 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in operating expenses for gaming operators, though reinvestment costs could be flattening.
Macau has recorded its lowest level of GGR this year, with MOP17.69 billion made in June, representing a month-on-month decrease of 12 per cent and a recovery to 74 per cent of the 2019 level.
The figure is largely in line with the sell-side consensus of MOP17.9 billion, but should be higher than buy-side consensus.
“We think June GGR number is positive amidst several concerns for the sector: (1) no free snacks for non-gamblers, (2) fewer referral programs, and (3) weaker retail sales and China macros,” the analysts wrote.
Morgan Stanley also indicated that Macau’s GGR for the second quarter would be 2 per cent lower quarter-on-quarter, amounting to US$7.1 billion, marking a recovery to 77 per cent of pre-pandemic level.
According to a report by another brokerage firm Citibank, Macau’s daily run-rate is expected to rebound from the seasonal trough around mid-July.
July’s GGR is projected to reach MOP19 billion, translating into a daily GGR of MOP613 million and a recovery to 78 per cent of 2019 level.
The analysts at Citibank maintain their full-year GGR growth forecast of 26 per cent year-on-year.
